The principle occasion of UFC Combat Night time: Wichita might be a heavyweight contest between former champion Junior Dos Santos and Derrick Lewis. On the floor, Dos Santos holds a number of spectacular profession putting information, whereas Lewis seemingly has the power to cease a combat at any time. Nevertheless, a deeper take a look at the stats and numbers illuminates another key stylistic tendencies, which could possibly be the distinction on Saturday.
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Most fighters do a majority of their putting at distance, which is outlined as standing and never within the clinch. Dos Santos is definitely not an exception. Throughout his UFC profession, 85 p.c of his vital strikes have landed at distance, and he ought to have the benefit within the place in opposition to Lewis. Not like the previous heavyweight champion, solely 39 p.c of Lewis‘ landed vital strikes have come at distance. He’s way more reliant on his floor putting, which has accounted for 46 p.c of his vital complete.
Not solely does Dos Santos have the benefit when it comes to proportion, he additionally lands extra precisely and at a better price within the place. At distance, he has landed 47 p.c of his makes an attempt, and he lands 4.05 vital strikes per minute. However, Lewis lands solely 35 p.c of his makes an attempt at distance and only one.07 per minute within the place.
If these tendencies proceed, Dos Santos ought to have a significant benefit when it comes to distance putting. Lewis possible won’t be able to compete in a strike rely battle at vary. To achieve success, he might want to make his photographs matter and probably pressure the competition into different positions.
Sadly for Lewis, considered one of Dos Santos‘ strengths as a fighter has been his capability to maintain fights standing. Throughout his UFC profession, he has efficiently stopped 80 p.c of his opponents’ takedown makes an attempt. Exterior of his three-fight sequence in opposition to fellow former champion Cain Velasquez, Dos Santos has stopped 91 p.c of makes an attempt in opposition to him and been taken down solely thrice.
Whereas Lewis has completed a big portion of his putting on the bottom, he has by no means actually proven dependable takedown capability. Throughout his UFC profession, he has landed solely 23 p.c of his takedown makes an attempt and averaged solely 0.49 takedowns per 15 minutes of combat time. In hispast three fights, he has failed on 4 straight takedown makes an attempt.
Lewis may need success working from the highest place, however he’ll more likely to wrestle to earn that place by way of his takedown recreation. Traditionally, Dos Santos has been capable of pressure a standing combat and impose his putting assault.
Dos Santos‘ capability to land strikes at distance and preserve fights standing has helped him construct a good putting differential (vital strikes landed per minute minus vital strikes absorbed per minute). After an 18-fight UFC profession, his putting differential presently stands at +1.65, which is above common for ranked heavyweights (+1.24). Dos Santos truly absorbs an unusually massive variety of vital strikes on a per-minute foundation. At 3.13 per minute, he absorbs the second-most vital strikes of any ranked heavyweight.
Nevertheless, he makes up for that shortcoming offensively. Dos Santos has landed 1035 vital strikes in his UFC profession, which is greater than another heavyweight within the promotion’s historical past. His 4.78 vital strikes per minute price is the fifth highest in UFC historical past.
Lewis lands solely 2.76 vital strikes per minute, however he does fairly effectively when it comes to absorbing photographs. He has allowed his opponents to land solely 2.30 per minute, which is fourth greatest amongst lively UFC heavyweights. Nevertheless, that quantity is considerably deceptive. Whereas his absorption price stands out positively, his putting protection is definitely a legal responsibility. He has prevented solely 44 p.c of his opponents putting makes an attempt. Amongst ranked heavyweights, Lewis checks in finally place when it comes to that metric. Whereas he has taken benefit of his opponents’ lack of quantity, he has been very hittable.
Regardless of clearly having energy putting, Lewis has not been capable of pile up the knockdowns. He has averaged solely 0.49 knockdowns per 15 minutes of combat time. Nevertheless, he has been capable of cease 10 fights with strikes within the UFC. He has averaged solely 41.9 vital strikes per KO/TKO victory, which demonstrates the influence of his energy.
On this matchup, the facility shouldn’t be confined to 1 fighter. Dos Santos truly holds the UFC file for essentially the most knockdowns landed by a heavyweight with 13. He has landed 0.90 knockdowns per 15 minutes within the promotion.
Whereas that is possible Lewis‘ greatest probability to take dwelling the victory, three of his 4 UFC defeats have come by way of KO/TKO. His recreation plan will possible revolve round benefiting from alternatives to unleash his energy photographs. Nevertheless, that technique would possibly depart him open and permit Dos Santos to attain the stoppage as an alternative.